Time for my Oscar predictions! I am notoriously bad with these–for some reason I forget every year how boring the Oscars have gotten in their selection process and start to overthink things. This year, I’ve tried to get a little less creative with the choices. (“You know, I really think the Academy will surprise us and give Best Supporting to Robert Duvall.”) If I’m egregiously wrong, this will be up for posterity so you can all point and laugh.
Will win: On the subject of the great Boyhood–Birdman showdown, I’m going to flip a coin and say Boyhood.
Should win: Selma. I will also accept “anything that is not The Imtiation Game, screw you Harvey Weinstein.”
Will win: I think we’re looking at a Best Picture-Best Director split, like we had for the past two years. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman.
Should win: Well, since Ava DuVernay wasn’t nominated *grumble grumble*, I’m going to go with Alejandro González Iñárritu for turning out a truly unique piece of cinema with Birdman. Side note: If he does win, it’ll be three years in a row that the Best Directing trophy went to someone who’s not a white dude. Pretty cool.
Will win: Michael Keaton has a strong chance here, but I’m going to err on the side of pessimism and say Redmayne’s going to get it.
Should win: Michael Keaton.
Will win: Julianne Moore has this one on lockdown for Still Alice.
Should win: Confession: I have not seen Still Alice. If I had seen it, everything I’ve heard makes me think I’d be putting Moore’s name here. And hell, I like her a lot. Didn’t see The Theory of Everything, either, but… meh. Nothing I’ve heard about it indicates I’d like it all that much. Of Pike, Witherspoon, and Cotillard, I’m going to go with Pike.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Should win: Simmons all the way.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood.
Should win: What is up with this weak-ass category this year? Patricia Arquette, I guess. She was good. Who else would I even pick? Where is Selma‘s Carmen Ejogo?
Best Animated Feature
Will win: Big Hero 6.
Should win: The LEGO Movie. I don’t even care that it’s not nominated. Among the actual nominees, my choiceis The Boxtrolls.
Will win: Birdman
Should win: Birdman. Cinematographygasm.
Best Costume Design
Will win: Into the Woods
Should win: I think Woods has this one in the bag for its period costume-ness, which the Oscars love, but I’d go with The Grand Budapest Hotel. Anderson movies have style.
Best Hair & Makeup
Will win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: Grand Budapest, for Tilda Swinton in old person makeup reasons.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Birdman. Anderson will win this one day, but I don’t think it’ll be for Grand Budapest.
Should win: Birdman.
Best Original Song
Will win: “Glory,” Selma
Should win: I’ll get over The LEGO Movie being snubbed at the Oscars, because it’s The LEGo Movie and it doesn’t scream “This was tailor-made for you, AMPAS!” in the first place, but if Selma doesn’t win something, I will scream.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Imitation Game
Should win: Whiplash
Will win: Boyhood
Should win: Boyhood
Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: Ida
Should win: Full disclosure: I haven’t seen Tangerines. Among the other four, my vote goes to Timbuktu.
Best Production Design
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Live-Action Short
Will win: The Phone Call
Should win: Butter Lamp
Best Visual Effects
Will win: Interstellar
Should win: Interstellar
For the other categories–Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Best Documentary, Best Documentary Short, Best Animated Short–I either don’t know enough about the subject or haven’t seen enough of the films, so unlike some people, I’m going to abstain.